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India’s Foreign Policy: FROM NON TO MULTI-ALINGMENT!, By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri, 8 December 2023 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 8 December 2023

India’s Foreign Policy

FROM NON TO MULTI-ALINGMENT!

By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri

(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism) 

The erudite and articulate foreign affairs minister S Jaishankar has of late been stressing the multi-polarity in world politics that requires a multi-alignment approach. Probably he means that configuration of world powers has drastically changed causing a few global powers emerging on the scene. So non-alignment between two blocks in a bipolar world as it was, should give way to engaging with various power centres. This certainly merits a deeper evaluation. Interestingly, the foreign policy for the first in recent years, such as the success of G-20 in New Delhi, became a campaign point in the recent State elections.   

Foreign policy of any country is essentially a manifestation of its national imperatives. They are defined by international political observers, commentators, academics and diplomats as determinants, objectives, principles and national interests. India’s foreign policy, likewise, has been shaped by and has evolved as reflection of such priorities, and more important, in response to the prevalent world order. 

The evolution of India’s foreign policy since 1947 till date could be divided into several phases in various ways. Let us take two formats for segmenting India’s foreign policy. One is to divide it into six phases. The first phase (1947-62) could be described as optimistic Non-Alignment. India got independence in 1947, two years after the end of Second World War when international politics got divided into two camps – one led by the US and the other by the former Soviet Union. India was wary of the Western powers which were colonisers and wanted to stay away from them. 

Strategically also, India did not wish to belong to any camp. The independent stance stemmed from its long and gruelling freedom struggle. Thus, India founded the Non-Alignment Movement (NAM) in 1961, which, in a way, was the zenith of solidarity in the Third World which was getting decolonised. However, the 1962 war with China changed that position as India had to seek military help from US and Britain. 

The unexpected war with China and its consequence led to the second phase of Realism and Reorganising (1962-71). New Delhi had to look beyond Non-Alignment in the interest of national security, concluding a now largely forgotten defence agreement with the US in 1964. Later, India faced pressures from the US and UK on Kashmir. At the same time, Pakistan was becoming an ally of the United States. New Delhi then perforce had to tilt towards the Soviet Union which led to the third phase. 

The third phase (1971-91) consisted of India’s assertion as a regional power based on self-reliance. India showed remarkable strategic autonomy and use of hard power in liberating East Pakistan (Bangladesh) in 1971 war against Pakistan. The emergence of US-China-Pakistan axis posed multiple challenges for India. Recognising the security risks, New Delhi signed a Peace and Friendship Treaty with Soviet Union. Geo-political and domestic upheavals in 1990s necessitated a strategic shift in India’s foreign policy. The Gulf War (1991-91), the collapse of the Soviet Union (1991) and the economic stagnation at home causing a balance of payment crisis led India to rethink its foreign policy. 

The fourth phase, safeguarding the strategic autonomy (1991-98) came into play. The strategic autonomy manifested conspicuously in exercising its nuclear option (Pokhran-II) in 1998. The emergence of the US as a sole super power also prompted India to change its course. India reached out to engage with the US, Israel and Asean countries. 

In the fifth phase (1998-2013), India acquired the attributes of a balancing power and began to be seen as the counterweight to China, a new economic power. This recognition could be reflected in India-US Nuclear Agreement in 2008. At the same time, India maintained its traditional ties with Russia and made ‘common cause’ with China in BRICS and SCO. 

The sixth phase turned India to multi-alignment (2013-till now). This current strategy emanates from India’s self-realisation of its capabilities and geo-political significance in the existing world politics influenced largely by rise and threat of China. To name a few of India’s power-indicators; it is one of the major world economies (fifth largest), a big technology power (software), global player in certain major issues like climate change (Paris Agreement), anti-terrorism (peace-broker) and a regional power – SAGAR, Act East, BIMSTEC, QUAD, and so on. 

The second format phasing India’s foreign policy consists of three strategies. Nehruvian idealism (1947-62); during this period, India regarded ethics and rule-based order as the guiding principles enshrined in the international institutions. That is why perhaps India took the Kashmir dispute to the United Nations, signed the Panchsheel Agreement with China (remember Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai mood sweeping across the country), built NAM which was marked by anti-imperialism, anti-colonialism and anti-racism. 

The war with China changed dramatically India’s foreign policy. New Delhi shifted to strategic realism (1962-1991). In this phase, India gave shelter to Dalai Lama to the chagrin of China; India was critical of US action in Vietnam, India liberated Bangladesh in 1971, sent troops to Sri Lanka (IPKF) to quell the Tamil separatist movement, although on hindsight, it was a strategic mistake. 

In the third phase following the foreign currency crisis in 1991, India embraced the policy of economic pragmatism, which primarily meant focussing on India’s growth and development. Following such strategy, India did business with China despite the lingering border disputes, continued arms trade and other imports from Russia despite latter’s decline as a world power and falling out with US, carried on trade even with Pakistan although to a less volume than before. New Delhi negotiated both with Israel and adversarial Arab States. 

From the historical overview of India’s foreign policy, I would like to draw two broad distinct phases in terms of strategy, one non-alignment and the other, multi-alignment. It is to be noted that non-alignment was sought to be worked into “genuine Non-Alignment for a brief period, two-and-half years under Janata Party rule (1977-79)”. It is also worth noting that the Latin American countries seem to be emulating India’s non-aligned strategy re-christening it as “active Non-Alignment” which partly shaped their reactions to the war in Ukraine. 

This policy emerged in 2019 and is still being laid out as a framework of their foreign policy in response to the challenges posed by US-China competition. It means not accepting a priori position of any of great power in conflict. The term ‘active’ refers to a foreign policy in constant search of opportunities, a kind of nimble approach. 

In India’s journey from non-alignment to multi-alignment, is there any room for re-alignment? Recognising the popular aphorism, “people become wiser after the event”, non-alignment was a flawed policy from the word go. If Nehru wanted to stay away from Western powers, why did he stay in the Commonwealth which was created and headed by Britain? In a world, in which countries are inter-dependent as well as antagonistic, it was not feasible to be non-aligned. The non-viability of the strategy was exposed many times in India’s conduct of its foreign policy – 1956 (invasion of Hungary), 1962 (China war), 1968 (attack on Czechoslovakia), 1971 (post-Bangladesh war) and so on. 

Multi-alignment is stating the obvious. No country can function in isolation. Politics is global although strategies in actions are national. Multi-alignment as a strategy seems nebulous; it needs to be clearly defined. Going with everyone conceptually appears to be confusing two potential allies, actual friends and partners. What is therefore needed is re-alignment in India’s foreign policy in keeping with its long-term national interests. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Regional Imbalance: WILL FINANCE PANEL BRIDGE GAP?, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 6 December 2023 Print E-mail

Open Forum

New Delhi, 6 December 2023

Regional Imbalance

WILL FINANCE PANEL BRIDGE GAP?

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

The BJP’s victory in three states appears to suggest the promise of development via ‘double engine’ sarkar has takers. And the timing should make the task of the 16th Finance Commission, recently recommended by the Union Cabinet to be set up, easier. It is to decide on sharing of taxes between the states and Centre. States are entitled to 41% share of the divisible pool, which comprises all taxes, excluding the cesses and surcharges. However, they have been demanding a larger share of the pie, arguing they are burdened by many schemes announced by the Centre. On its part, the Centre believes it’s funding several schemes, such as health and education is part of the States’ mandate. The difference of opinion may steadily disappear now.    

The existence of regional imbalance in India cannot be denied as there has not been balanced development. As in the case of literacy and educational attainment, where the states of southern India are far ahead than others, similarly in financial matters, states in the western part as well as Tamil Nadu and Karnataka in the south are stronger than their counterparts. The pace of growth in the two southern states and in Maharashtra and Gujarat has been phenomenal in recent years and experts believe their performance may be even better in the coming years. 

The per head income of states such as West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha is far below the national average. In fact, the per head income of Bengal has been one of the lowest in the country in 2022-23 at Rs 141,373 whereas in Telangana, Karnataka and Haryana it’s more than double. These are indicative of regional imbalances in economic development. The Centre’s strategy of tackling this has not been successful enough and India suffers from a strategy of balanced economic development. 

Prior to liberalisation, the Centre’s efforts yielded some results with the economic emergence of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh (undivided), and Haryana and helped the hilly and smaller states to stand on their own. But presently, the government has hardly any means of restricting regional imbalances. If is left on the market forces and in all likelihoodimbalances in the standard of living of people in different states shall reach a crisis proportion. By 2047, some states will be as prosperous as some East European nations while most others will be comparable to some central African nations. 

According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) estimate, the average GDP per head in India, based on purchasing power parity, was $9,073 in 2023 which came to around Rs 213,215. It is indeed distressing to note that an emerging country like India ranks 127th and is in the league of small and virtually unnoticed nations like Laos (125), Cape Verde (126) and Bangladesh (128). 

Undeniably, in the coming years some parts of the country will be more equal than others due to the uneven nature of development. An aver­age person in Telangana, Kar­na­ta­ka or Goa will be having more or less a similar standard like those living in the west, comparable to say today’s Hungary or Croatia. Thus, the relative diffe­rences in the economic condi­tions of different states will be more differential than what it is today. 

The present determination to make India the third largest economy of the world after the US and China is obviously a positive development. India’s per capita GDP increased from $442 in 2000 to $2389 in 2022, which is considered quite impressive. But what has been of great concern is the widening inequality in incomes along with regional, spatial and gender disparities. Unless the laggard states can increase their incomes, even if the achievement becomes a reality, the development would not be balanced. 

India’s human development index, which is a composite of incomes, health and education, has been falling rapidly. The nation’s current rank is 132 among 191 countries, which indeed is quite shameful since India is aspiring to be among the top nations of the world. A recent UNDP report found that India’s economic inequalities in wealth and income to be among the highest in the world, which obviously goes against the concept of inclusive growth. Regionally, states comprising 45 percent of the population contain 62 percent of the poor. 

Thus, the importance of the 16th Finance Commission comes into play. Obviously, the poorer states would be given a larger chunk of funds compared to the performing ones but this strategy, adopted by the earlier Finance Commission, hasn’t yielded expected results. The high growth states continue to make rapid strides in their incomes while only Odisha has shown some promise among the poor states. 

Economic justice demands that the Finance Commission allocate tax proceeds in such a way that the rich states subsidise the poor. Then there is the Backward Region Grant Fund (BRGF) which is implemented in 272 identified backward districts in all states to redress regional development imbalances. Besides, there’s the Pradhan Mantri Khanij Kshetra Kalyan Yojana (PMKKKY), launched in September 2015 for the welfare of tribals and tribal areas and others affected by mining. But all these have not had any significant impact in boosting up the said incomes. 

India’s geographical diversity and different levels of development across regions mean that location specific targeted action would be required in less prosperous regions to ensure a minimum acceptable level of prosperity. The NITI Aayog has aThree-Year Action Agenda which underlined specific action for north Himalayan states, North-Eastern states, coastal regions and islands, desert and drought prone areas. There is obviously the need for implementing this action plan in a diligent and judicious manner. 

The belief that giving more funds to the poor states would result in a shift in the composition of India’s GDP away from agriculture has not become a reality as movement of labour from agriculture and from rural to urban areas has not taken shape. Thus, the inequality among states remains a big challenge, which needs to be seriously looked into and, it would be better, if the responsibility is given to the Finance Commission to suggest ways of improving the per capita income of the laggard states.     

Making agriculture more lucrative through value-addition and setting up agro-based industries may need to be considered. Though there may not be much scope for large-scale industrialisation and thrust on manufacturing in some states, they could concentrate on agro-based and cottage industries as also various types of ancillary products which may have a lucrative export market. Additionally, the electronics and IT sector could set up small hubs in various states as well small pharma manufacturing centres to meet regional demands. 

Economists and financial analysts are unanimous that merely providing funds will not help, unlessit’s supported by a plan, which the laggard states may be advised to follow. Accordingly, there’s anurgent need to frame some mechanism to boost incomes of the non-performing states and bridge the gap.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

 

WANTED: OPPOSITION THAT WORKS, By Inder Jit, 5 December 2023 Print E-mail

REWIND

New Delhi, 5 December 2023

WANTED: OPPOSITION THAT WORKS

By Inder Jit

(Released on 23 June 1981) 

The Opposition has none but itself to blame for coming to grief once again. It seems to have learnt nothing and unlearnt nothing from its bitter experience. The final results of the recent by-elections show that the Opposition parties could have done a lot better if only these had come to some understanding between themselves. In UP alone, the Opposition together polled more votes than the Congress (I) in three Lok Sabha seats: Allahabad, Bareilly and Mirzapur. But it had lost the battle even before the first shot was fired. Mrs. Gandhi need not have taken the trouble she took to campaign for her party candidates. But as India’s shrewdest politician she understood the importance of the by-elections and went all out to win them. Psychologically, triumph at the polls was vital for her. Prices have spurted all round since she returned to power. Law and order situation has deteriorated. Unemployment has continued to mount. It was, therefore, imperative for her to prove that the people still have faith in her. And, there is no viable alternative to the Congress (I) yet. 

The Opposition’s latest poll debacle has brought together the leaders of the Lok Dal, Congress (U), Bharatiya Janata Party and Janata Party --- at least in issuing a joint statement. Mr. Charan Singh, Mr. Devaraj Urs, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee and Mr. Madhu Dandwate have asserted that “the age of free democratic elections is over” and it was time for all those committed to the democratic process to sit up and take serious note. “Unlimited and unimaginable amounts of money,” according to them, had been distributed in the by-elections which were also marked by “blatant misuse of government machinery and police, wholesale rigging, booth capturing and unabashed violence.” Further, for the first time in free India, the Prime Minister had canvassed in the by-elections, broken a convention and “intimidated” the electorate. All in all, the Congress (I) had “gone to any extent” to ensure its victory and thereby sown the “seeds of anarchy” and made a “mockery of parliamentary democracy.” 

The charges are grave and unprecedented. Significantly, the CPI General Secretary, Mr. Rajeswara Rao, too, has accused the Congress (I) of “blatant misuse of official machinery, violation of all democratic norms and values, use of money power and goondaism.” Many of these charges will require to be checked for veracity. One thing alone is established. Mrs. Gandhi violated what she herself described as a convention by campaigning in the by-elections. Some apologists for the ruling party have argued that it was not realistic to expect the Congress (I) to go to the polls without its star vote-catcher canvassing for votes. Yet, the fact remains that the Prime Minister’s campaign at a time when the Congress (I) is enjoying a big majority at the Centre and in UP and elsewhere amounted to telling the voters: Vote for the Congress (I) or else. The convention ensures what the Constitution provides: a poll which is not only free and fair but also without fear! Nehru upheld it boldly and refrained from campaigning, for instance, in the Lok Sabha by-elections from Amroha, Kannauj and Rajkot in 1963 even though he wanted to keep Acharya Kripalani, Dr. Lohia and Mr. Masani out. 

Nevertheless, a question that needs to be put to Mr. Charan Singh, Mr. Urs, Mr. Vajpayee, Mr. Dandwate and Mr. Rajeswara Rao and their parties is: why could they not see what was possibly coming and take appropriate, advance measures to prevent blatant misuse of machinery and much else that is alleged? Why could they not act in time --- and why must they only react? The post-event statements of the five leaders appear to have been issued mainly on the basis of many grave allegations made by Mr. H.N. Bahuguna in regard to the by-election in Pauri-Garhwal. Yet one fact stands out. Mr. Bahuguna had warned the country days before the poll of what might happen in his constituency. Sadly enough, no one took any serious notice of these warnings --- notice which could surely have been taken by the Opposition parties singly or unitedly irrespective of their personal attitude towards the controversial Mr. Bahuguna. 

What could the Opposition have done? The answer is not far to seek, as shown by a pre-poll consensus among some thinking people anxious to strengthen our young democracy. The Opposition, it was agreed, could have responded meaningfully to Mr. Bahuguna’s virtual S.O.S. by dispatching a top-level team of observers representing various parties to see things for themselves in Pauri-Garhwal prior to the polling and on the poll day itself. In addition, the parties could have associated with such a team non-party and non-power seeking organizations such as Citizens for Democracy, Voters’ Council, Gandhi Peace Foundation and Lok Sevak Sangh. The other words, the principal Opposition parties now wailing over the alleged happenings in Pauri-Garhwal could have ensured that the vote was free and fair irrespective of their attitude towards Mr. Bahuguna. It was clearly for these proclaimed democrats to show what they stood for: an equal chance at the polls to even one’s worst opponent. 

The Opposition’s characteristic failure to respond in time to the developing situation in Pauri-Garhwal goes to the heart of the matter. (Mr. Bahuguna’s statements and the alleged threat to his life are only one part of the story. Pauri-Garhwal witnessed before the poll an incredible star-spangled show by the Congress (I): Six State Chief Ministers and two score and more of other Ministers were campaigning at one time in addition to Mrs. Gandhi). The Opposition must realize that its approach to the public, by and large, leaves a great deal to be desired. First things are not being tackled first. The Opposition today lacks the people’s confidence as never before. In 1977, the common man asserted his power and gave the Opposition a chance to prove its mettle. But this opportunity was recklessly thrown away. Worse, the lesson of 1980 has not been learnt. Its leaders have done little to rebuild their credibility and show they are now putting the country before self. 

Annual party sessions, occasional public meetings and press conferences have their importance. Unfortunately, however, most Opposition leaders, like those of the Government, often read more into the crowds at their meetings than is justified. The common man turns up at these meetings mainly to give himself a break from his normal dreary existence. The public meeting is for him essentially in the nature of a mela or a tamasha, depending upon the weather and his mood --- and no index of his commitment. (A veteran recalls Nehru once asking Bakshi Ghulam Mohd about his following in Kashmir. Pat came the reply: “25 lakhs.” Nehru “What about Sheikh Sahib?” The Bakshi replied “25 lakhs.” Puzzled, Nehru remarked: “I don’t understand.” The Bakshi replied: “Our people flock to listen to whosoever is on the platform!”) A question which thus arises is: Is the Opposition doing enough to build its credibility and offer itself as a viable alternative to the Congress (I)? 

The answer on both scores is regrettably a big “no”. True, the Opposition leaders swear by various democratic norms and ideals. However, they seldom follow up their proclaimed commitments through convincing deeds, as shown, for instance, by the case of the CPM Ministries in West Bengal and Kerala. As everyone knows, the Jyoti and the Nayanar Ministries are under attack. New Delhi could, if it so willed, carry out the threat held out by some Central ministers on visits to Calcutta and Trivandrum and topple the two Governments. But the Opposition leaders, barring an exception or two, have done little to stand up for the basic principles that must guide Centre-State relations ---- and make it clear that they would oppose tooth and nail any unconstitutional attempt to cut short a lawfully elected Government. The Opposition parties may have their differences with the CPM. But these could be agitated separately. The important thing for the Opposition is to carry conviction among the masses that it means what it says and, if necessary, is even willing to shed blood for the other man’s right to disagree. 

The Opposition parties could easily take a leaf out of the British book once again and prove that it means business as shown by its newly formed Socialist Democratic Party. Although born yesterday, the SDP has decided to put up one of its leading lights from Warrington in a bye-election to the Commons on July 16. The constituency is known to be a Labour stronghold and, according to Mrs. Shirley Williams, it would be “a miracle if the SDP wins.” Nevertheless the party has put up the well-known Mr. Roy Jenkins for the poll to prove, according to the London Times, “the seriousness of its challenge to the Labour and the Conservative parties.” Adds the Times: And, Mr. Jenkins took no persuading that the honour of appearing as the first standard-bearer properly fell to him.” Mr. Jenkins, for his part, underlined the importance of the fight when he said: “our sights as a party are very high. We want to show a way out from the old debilitating politics of outdated dogmatism, remote from the thoughts of ordinary people and encouragement of false class confrontation which have bedeviled this country”.

In sharp contrast, the Opposition in India is not only failing itself but also the country. Like the SDP in the UK, it should have moved heaven and earth to put up prestige fights at least in some seats to carry conviction among the people about their serious intent to challenge the Congress (I). The BJP, which seems to be viewed as an emerging alternative, could have surely come forward with some top-level candidates just to register a point, even if the other parties were unwilling to oblige. The Janata, too, has allowed its case to go by default. But all this need not cause despair. As the saying goes, there is always another day. The Metropolitan Council elections in Delhi, which are already overdue, offer another opportunity to the Opposition. Again, the Opposition parties could come together in Parliament and help restore their credibility through coordinated functioning on major issues. In the final analysis, there is a crying need today for an Opposition which not only stands for parliamentary democracy but also an Opposition that works.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

 

Ladakh To Manipur – Billions Loss: MORE SILKYARAS IN THE MAKING By Shivaji Sarkar, 4 December 202 Print E-mail

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 4 December 2023

Ladakh To Manipur – Billions Loss

MORE SILKYARAS IN THE MAKING

By Shivaji Sarkar 

Ignoring the Himalayan warnings has become a habit.Kedarnath tragedy lessons were never learnt. Had it heard the Union Environment Ministry (UEM)advisories on road construction-generated woes in the Rajya Sabha in 2018, perhaps many disasters, across the country could have been avoided.The prevailing constructions from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur pose significant threat to the mountain ecosystem. 

Both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank wonder how Darjeeling, Shimla or Mussoorie built by the British have simple, scenic disaster-resilient roads. 

Losses could only partially be measured in monetary terms. Stretches of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, North Bengal or Manipur have been wiped off during the last few years. Could any monetisation quantify the grievous losses? According to UN ESCAP report, India suffered $3.2 billion losses largely due to heavy rains and floods in 2021. Post 2013 Kedarnath tragedy losses were Rs 13000 crore in Uttarakhand alone. This year’s severe floods in Uttarakhand caused irreparable losses. Himachal floods washed off large stretches of the newly constructed roads. The felled tree logs that were dumped below the newly constructed roads caused wide devastations as these floated with the swirling waters. 

In 2023-24, the National Highway Authority of India (NHAI)has been allocated Rs 162,207 crore--60 percent of the total road ministry budget and is 25 percent higher than the previous year. Even maintenance expenses were increased by 44 percent from Rs 900 crore to Rs1300 crore, apparently to offset continuous damages. The state PWDs that do 50 percent of the repairs got Rs 280 crore against Rs 132 crore a year back.All Himalayan states have approached the centre for large fundings for reconstructions. 

The 17 breathless days that the nation awaited rescue of 41 workers trapped from the caved in Silkyara tunnel in Uttarkashi, have forced the government to study the impact of road constructions. The 4.5 km tunnel is said to have no emergency safety exits. 

If the 2018 warning itself had been heard, nobody would have ventured on ill-advised Char Dham road digging. The UEM warning was explicit. It said that most landslides in “Manipur were ‘anthropogenically’ induced and were caused due to several factors, including the ‘modification’ of mountain and hill slopes for construction and road widening. The state witnessed six major landslides in 2018, three in 2017, one 2015 and four in 2010”. There were more during subsequent years, the worst being the death of 61 persons at a massive landslide at the Tulpul railway station construction for connecting to Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore as part of the Trans Asian Railway. A GSI report attributed it to activities in a “highly susceptible zone” at an extensive slope cut for construction. 

Ladakh to Manipur today is a severe danger zone. Reckless tree felling, clearing of vegetation and changing delicate Himalayan structure for large profits have become the norm.  Silkiyara is not the first tunnel in Uttarakhand tocollapse. Tapovan tunnel flooding killing at least 67 is forgotten. The Vishnuprayagproject that causedAlaknandato disappear in a 5-km stretch is history and nobody listens to the drought that Karnaprayag rail tunnel has caused in PanaiPokhri in the Chamoli district as the lone stream has dried up.

The Rs 12500 crore, 889 km Char Dham project connecting the fragile Himalayas of Kedarnath, Badrinath, Yamunotri and Gangotri has been controversial since launch in December 2016. As feared heavy drilling, bulldozing and construction was causing heavy subsidence, landslides and environmental damage in different parts.Joshimathis in the news for this. 

The Himachal government document says roads to cost Rs 40000 crore and massive disturbances to the state ecology.It means the system has not learnt from mistakes. The 2023 summer floods caused extensive devastation and loss of lives due to post-road construction change of environment. If more roads are constructed, it means that the state could face worse consequences. 

The damages at Tulpul in Manipur were not caused by the disturbances in vulnerable slope alone. The debris dumped, as in Himachal, blocked the natural water flow of the rivers in areas with several geological fault lines. It tore apart s geologically weak zones. 

String of dams in Uttarakhand mostly not far from road projects are emerging as potential threats. The lakes formed in delicate areas are potential threats, including the Tehri dam. It has added to reservoir-induced seismicity and increased incidences of landslides observed in the reservoir rim. 

Building of dams in the Himalayas is not considered safe. The October cloudburst in Sikkim, coupled with the melting of the Lhonak glacier at height of 17,100 feet, caused glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF). The sudden gushing waterswashed away Teesta Stage 3 dam, known as Urja project. It led to massive destructions downstream damaging thousands of buildings, wiped off roads and collapsed 111 major bridges. It claimed many lives, including those of army personnel. 

Tehri dam authorities claim that it could withstand earthquake of 8.5 magnitude on Richter scale. The Supreme Court experts’ committee headed by Dr Ravi Chopra, Director of People’s Science Institute, stated that several floods were aggravated by hydroelectricity projects. The poor waste management aggravatesdisasters. Professor James Brune, a prominent seismologist, said: “We have to conclude that the proposed Tehri Dam's location is one of the most hazardous in the world from the point of earthquakes”. He sounds prophetic. Does it mean downhill, regions up to Rishikeshvulnerable, if it meets the Lhonak fate? 

May be those are extreme views. But the road and rail projects from Ladakh to Manipur everywhere are having disastrous effect. To cite one, Adi Kailash in Pithoragarh was recently inaugurated as a tourist point for viewing the Kailash peak. Areas around were blasted to build roads and other facilities. Only days later, on September 23, a hill came crashing down killing seven persons and changing the topography of the region. 

While improvements are welcome but an end to the toll-levied massive greed is must to preserve the pristine regions for the existence of the Himalayas. If the Himalayas are lost to silly constructions, entire ecology of the subcontinent could alter for the worse. In 1980, the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had stopped the Tehri dam construction, the government now should consider thawing all road, dam, hydro and other construction activities. For small profits, nobody should be allowed to play havoc  with the Himalayas.---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

‘Not Necessarily, By Accident’? By Rajiv Gupta, 2 December 2023 Print E-mail

Spotlight

New Delhi, 2 December 2023

‘Not Necessarily By Accident’?

By Rajiv Gupta 

The nation celebrated the rescue of 41 workers from the Silkyara Bend–Barkot tunnel in the Uttarkashi district of Uttarakhand. Once the euphoria of successful effort settles, it will be time to ask whether the tunnel collapse was preventable. The utility and impact of the answers will depend on the questions we ask. Our conduct of post-accident inquiries into its causes has been less than satisfactory. A discussion of how we have dealt with railway accidents will illustrate this. 

On October 29, 2023, there was a terrible train accident involving a collision between the Vishakhapatnam-Palsa passenger train, and the Vishakhapatnam-Rayagada passenger train between Alamanda and Kantakapele in Andhra Pradesh which resulted in the death of 14 and several more injured. 

On June 02, 2023, over 290 passengers lost their lives while around 1000 were injured in the train crash, involving the Bengaluru-Howrah Superfast Express, the Shalimar-Chennai Central Coromandel Express and a goods train. 

Such accidents are published on the front pages in newspapers and are on the national television news for a few days and then lapse into a collective national apathy until the next catastrophe. The process has become a ritual where politicians at local and national levels announce payments to the families of the deceased and to the injured. This is followed by a decision to initiate an enquiry into the causes of the accident. And then we happily move on with our lives. 

An inquiry conducted by the Commissioner of Railway safety (CRS) regarding the second accident highlighted that the rear-collision of the train caused due to the lapses in the signalling-circuit-alteration. It pointed that these lapses resulted in wrong signalling. Consequently, seven officials were suspended and proceedings were initiated against them. This probably would be the last thing about the accident in the media. 

The payment to the families is justified as compensation for the lapses on the part of the railways. However, the findings of the inquiry by the CRS as well as the ensuing action against seven officials merits discussion. 

There has been significant amount of research analysing human errors that result in accidents in a variety of situations from healthcare, to aviation, and nuclear power plants. Some of the most respected work has been done by James Reason and Charles Perrow. They have suggested that errors are of two types: active errors and latent errors. Active errors occur at the level of the frontline operators, and their effects are felt almost immediately. An example of active error could be the failure of the signaling system. Latent errors tend to be removed from the direct control of the operator and include things such as poor design, incorrect installation, faulty maintenance, bad management decisions, and poorly structured organisations. 

Active errors are related to the act of omission or commission that may have been occurred when and where the accident happened. They do not tend to affect any other area of the system at any other point in time. Latent errors are prevalent throughout the system. They can, and do, lead to errors in different parts of the system at different points in time and hence are more consequential than active errors. In general, any inquiry that is constituted after an accident tends to focus on active errors and not on latent, or systemic errors. 

There could be a variety of reasons for this. Latent errors are not easily discernible. They typically involve the acts of omission and or commission by higher level officials, and there could be a tendency to avoid confrontation with powerful officials. It is much easier to pick an operator’s mistake than to question the policy makers of the organisation. The end result is that the underlying problems remain embedded in the system and will result in future accidents and the same analysis would be repeated. 

An audit report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India on Derailment of Trains in India for the years 2017-2021 makes for some very interesting, as well as alarming, reading.  In fact, after reading the report, it would appear fortuitous that the number of accidents is not higher than what are observed in practice. Some key points from the report will be discussed in this article.

The report looked at several aspects of the operation and maintenance of the rail system. One aspect deals with the inspection of tracks with the help of Track Recording Cars (TRCs). The Indian Railway Permanent Way Manual (IRPWM) provides that the Broad Gauge routes should be monitored by TRCs as per prescribed frequencies dependent on the type of track. The audit found that the shortfall in conducting the inspections varied from 30 to 100% across different zonal divisions. The best performing zonal division could only perform 70% of the prescribed inspections. In 14 out of 18 divisions the inspections performed were half, or less than half the prescribed requirements, and in four divisions no inspections were carried out at all. 

The report also mentions that a derailment of Seemanchal Express occurred in February 2019. The TRC inspection over the section was overdue by four months, which could have given vital inputs for defects in the track which could have averted the accident. This is a clear example of a latent error leading to an accident. An initial investigation revealed that the accident was due to a fracture in the track, an active error. But there has been no mention in the media about the lack of inspection, which could have prevented the tragedy. The accident was waiting to happen. 

Several examples of latent errors are presented in the audit report. Some of these include shortfall in manpower, shortfalls in training for maintenance personnel, lack of adequate safety equipment such as helmets, torches, gloves for maintenance staff, non-adherence to recommended methods of welding for tracks, non-completion of recommended track renewals, etc. The Rashtriya Railway Suraksha Kosh (RRSK) was announced by the Ministry of Finance in 2017-18 for safety related works of renewal, replacement and augmentation of railway assets. 

An analysis by the CAG revealed a reducing trend of fund utilisation for track renewals, repairs, etc, while there was a growing misuse of funds for non-priority areas such as purchase of crockery, passenger amenities (lifts, escalators, extensions of platforms), salaries and bonuses, etc. The report found that out of 1129 derailments during 2017-18 to 2020-21, 289 derailments (around 26%) were linked to track renewals. This amply suggests the lack of safety focus on the part of the Railway management. 

Over the four-year period covered by the report (2017-2021), there were 217 consequential and 1800 other accidents. While derailments formed the largest percentage of both categories of accidents (65-70%), the second biggest cause of consequential accidents was fire. Despite about 9% of consequential accidents being due to fire, it was found that no fire extinguishers were provided in 62% of the coaches. 

The government is moving ahead with ambitious plans for high-speed rail connecting the cities. While we should be celebrating these plans, nevertheless there is sufficient cause for concern regarding our ability to maintain the existing railway assets, let alone the newer, more sophisticated systems. We should not fall into the trap of thinking that we can automate ourselves out of this mess. What is needed is better management at the ground level and a real commitment to passenger safety from the government and the top management of the railways. Until that happens, perhaps it might be better to slow down. And it may be instructive to repeat the audit after a few years to see to what extent the Railways have heeded the suggestions.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

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